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Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Mr. Rawles, I am a retired Army warrant officer working for the Army teaching Electronic Warfare and Signal Intelligence. I only started reading your blog last week. It's addictive, but slightly disturbing. Having worked for the Army for 27 years in a number of different failed countries I may have a unique perspective on survival that I would like to share with your readers. I believe most of the "survivalist community" is vastly underestimating the impact that other humans are going to have on their plans. Hunkering down and waiting for everyone to die off is a simplistic plan and I believe has almost no chance of working. You may be able to hide your retreat, but you can't hide the land it sits on. That land itself may become a scarce commodity if the US transitions to an agrarian economy. Food is the key resource. Most communities are at risk because they simply don't have enough calories stored to get them through any kind of crisis. But, storage is no more than limited capital to allow people time to grow more food. Food production requires land....if your retreat is sitting on farmable land, it will be a scarce resource. Carrying capacity of the US using non-petroleum farming techniques is far lower than most of your readers probably think. Also, most areas of the US, especially cities, don't have anywhere near enough farm-able land to go back to some kind of agrarian pattern. Without public infrastructure and modern transportation, we are going to experience a huge die-off caused mostly by starvation. In a total collapse scenario without immediate restoration of the economy, basically everyone who lives in a city is doomed unless they can take over some kind of farm land. If you live in an area without enough farm land, you will be a "have not". Period. I don't care how much food you have stored in your basement. Here is my key point. These teeming millions will not just starve and go away. I believe that anyone who thinks they can defend a working farm against raiders is deluding themselves. 1. People are dangerous. They are the most dangerous animal on earth. You can never lose sight of that! In almost any society breakdown scenario you can think of, you will be surrounded by starving predators that are much more dangerous than tigers. In the USA, every one of them (or at least the vast majority) will be armed with firearms. The ones currently without firearms will obtain them by any means necessary including looting government armories. These are thinking-breathing and highly motivated enemies. 2. Raiders, defined as "outlaw looting groups" may be a threat for a very short period, but I really don't see groups of more than 4-6 ever forming...they will be quickly replaced by much larger groups of "citizens" doing essentially the same things, but much better armed and organized. An Example: A few hours after Albania's political crisis in 1998, (which was caused by a national lottery scam), almost every adult male in the country procured an AKM from government stocks. Armories were the first targets looted. I flew into Tirana packing a pistol and a sack of money, naively thinking I would be able to move around the country and defend myself. What a laugh. Everyone had me outgunned, and the vast majority of them had military training of some sort. I never got out of the capital city. Every road seemed to have roadblocks every few miles, blocked by armed local citizens. 3. Without central authority, people don't just starve and go away. They form their own polities (governments). These polities are often organized around town or city government or local churches. They may call it a city counsel or a committee or a senate. The bottom line is, "We The People" will do whatever "We" have to do to survive. And that specifically includes taking your storage goods. 4. When (not if) a polity forms near you, you had better be part of that process. If not, you will be looked upon as a "resource" instead of a member of the community. The local polity will pass a resolution (or whatever) and "legally" confiscate your goods. If you resist, they will crush you. They will have the resources of a whole community to draw upon including weapons, vehicles, manpower, electronics, tear gas, etc. Every scrap of government owned equipment and weaponry will be used, by someone. Anyone who plans to hold out against that kind of threat is delusional. 5. The local polity that forms is almost certainly going to make mistakes. Some of them are lethal blunders. Odds are, the locals will probably not have given a lot of serious thought to facing long term survival. They will squander resources and delay implementing necessary actions (like planting more food or working together to defend a harvest). They may even decide to take in thousands of refugees from nearby cities, thereby almost insuring their own longer term starvation. A much better approach is to be an integral part of the community and use the combined resources of the community to defend all of your resources together. This would be much easier if a high percentage of the community were like minded folks who were committed to sharing and cooperating. Because any community with food is likely going to have to somehow survive while facing even larger polities, like nearby cities, counties or even state governments. Don't expect to face a walking hoard of lightly armed, starving individuals. Expect to face a professional, determined army formed by a government of some kind. A small farming community can probably support a few outsiders, but not very many. The community will need to politically deal with outside polities or they will face a war they can't win. Hiding the fact that you are self sufficient is going to be hard. You can't hide farm land. Defending your resources against the nearby city will be even harder. You may be able to save the community by buying protection with surplus food...if you have prepared for that. You may indeed have to fight, but stalling that event for even a year could mean the difference between living and being overwhelmed. In any case, your community needs to go into the crisis with a plan. You may be able to shape that plan if you become a community leader instead of a "resource". With Very Kind Regards, - R.J. JWR Replies: You've summed up some essential truths quite succinctly. Your points square nicely with the scenario in my first novel ("Patriots"). It also matches my premise of gemeinschaft kampfgeist, in the context of cohesion in the "we/they paradigm." http://www.survivalblog.com/ |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Good writeup... lots to think about.
Sad part is that if everyone had a reasonable amount of food storage, and were reasonably self sufficient, many of these issues would take care of themselves. |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Well, that was depressing. Now what?
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Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Good read, great advice.
I live in a small town (~5,000) and very much need to get more involved with it. Becoming a respected member of my community and having some preps will be better for survival than being a recluse with lots of preps. Time to join the Lions Club I'm thinking... |
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Why prep?? I got a draw full on takeout menus. Half a bottle of soda in the fridge. Not one but THREE boxes of micro waveable popcorn in the cabinet. And my cable bill is paid for the next 6ix months( okay, it was a promo package but still) Bring on the Zombie Apocalypse baby. IM READY. :23_30_104: |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Sort of thought of another point...
If you happen to be THE guy that has a listeroid generator and fuel hooked up to a trusted water source, it seems like it would be much easier to have everyone band together to help defend you and your setup. |
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http://cdn2.knowyourmeme.com/i/10630...jpg?1250960225 |
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stand by to stand by.... |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Thanks TA.
On the same link was this.. The Flash to Bang Count: Observations on the October Indonesian Asteroid Airburst A few days ago, The Telegraph reported: "An asteroid that exploded in the Earth's atmosphere with the energy of three Hiroshima bombs this month has reignited fears about our planet's defenses against space impacts. On 8 October, the rock crashed into the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The asteroid was around 20 meters across and hit the Earth's atmosphere at 45,000 mph. The blast was heard by monitoring stations 10,000 miles away, according to a report by scientists at the University of Western Ontario. Scientists are concerned that it was not spotted by any telescopes, and that had it been larger it could have caused a disaster. Luckily, due to the height of the explosion - estimated at between 15 and 20 km (nine to 12 miles) above sea level - no damage was caused on the ground." Later reports mentioned and estimated 5 to 10 meter diameter for the asteroid. Let's consider the implications of this event. If this had happened in the skies over a First World nation, or if the explosion had taken places at ground level (or near ground level, a la the 1908 Tunguska event), then there would be a huge clamor and calls for early asteroid impact prediction, and greater preparedness. But since this took place above what most consider a backwater nation, and there was no visible damage on the ground to photograph, this news story was resigned to "minor headline" status. And what if the object had been 100 meters in diameter, instead of 20? We've previously discussed asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits--also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs)-- and the consequences of potential impacts in SurvivalBlog. Asteroid impacts are one of those "low likelihood but high disruption" events. The chances of one occurring in our lifetimes is relatively low, but if one were to happen, the implications would be huge. In anticipation of future asteroid impacts, here are some factors to consider: * An asteroid impact could cause short-term climate change that could in turn cause multi-year crop failures on a hemispheric or even global scale. This means that it would be prudent to have multiple years food storage * The importance of living in inland areas. Let's face it: coastal areas anywhere on earth are vulnerable to mega-tsunamis, if you factor-in the threat of asteroid impacts. Unless there is some massive intervening terrain, don't live at less than 500 feet above sea level if you must live within 25 miles of an ocean. A 300+ foot high tsunami might seem hard to imagine, but just ask an astrophysicist. It is possible, and in fact there is some geologic evidence that that mega-tsunamis have occurred in the past 6,000 years. * Never underestimate the implications of mass hysteria and misdirected government reaction to a crisis. News of imminent crop failures might inspire executive orders mandating the collection of "hoarded" food. Hint: This will probably include food that you started storing years ago--long before any imminent threat warning or post-incident panic buying. So I must again warn my readers that it is wise to keep a low profile about your preparations. I have been studying the threat of asteroid impacts for many years. NEOs represent a "wild card"scenario. Since a fairly complete orbital path tracking database probably won't exist for 20+ years, this threat will remain an imponderable for the foreseeable future. Until a fully-populated database is developed, this will remain a quasi-voodoo science. The Indonesian event illustrates just how easy it is to get blind-sided. And even after we have complete tracking data, it will be decades longer before we start to proactively develop a program to "nudge" the larger NEO asteroids into safer orbits. But again, keep in mind that this is one of those "low actuarial risk/high consequence" events. Plan accordingly. |
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Keep stocking.... keep canning. We made 78 jars of strawberry jam and blueberry jam this weekend. Very rewarding... just tried some of the 'orphan' jam that was put into the fridge (not a full jar's worth, so it goes into the fridge instead of the water bath). YUM!!!!! |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
The warrant officer seems to have glossed over the part where the panicked, desperate people stampede each other to death. Then rob each other to death. Then turf war each other to death. Then get devastated by disease. People, especially fat people like you commonly see in cities, can go a long time without food and all of the above will happen within the first couple weeks of hunger.
He has a few good points but he speaks from the perspective of someone who is accustomed to functioning as part of a great political machine and the presence of the most powerful military in the history of civilization is in itself a stabilizing influence on those failed nations he has visited. An army crawls on its belly, if there was truly a shortage of food and other basics no army can survive very long. A determined individual or even a few neighbors can lay waste to any pseudo-army numbering only a few hundred individuals. Of course it takes the right kind of person with the right knowledge and skills to do that. If you aren't sure how it works you aren't the right sort of person and you'd better come up with an alternative strategy. |
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Fortunately for us that live out in the country (beyond walking distance 50mi), cities will become death traps when TSHTF. All food is JIT. Transport can't handle but a small percentage at one time. Highways will gridlock with out of gas cars.
I agree with OPs story on one point. If we think governments have gone rogue now, just wait. Liberty? bwahahaaa! Hide your preps well and in multiple places. plant your food everywhere you can in small plots make it difficult to find and steal. Don't stockpile a harvest in jars in your basement, they have to be cached as well. We have to make ourselves not worth the fight or organized intervention once panic sets in. Those of us who live in the country and don't use pesticides on our gardens are used to losing a portion or our crop to insects and fauna. Be prepared to give or barter away some food or you may loose all in a firefight. JMO |
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It would seem to say from all of the above is to keep as low a profile as possible and then some.. Blend in and do not stand out Do not give any clues about what you have or are doing. Stay dark and be invisible and do not stand out in anyway... Just a thought... |
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Absolutely, also be prepared to bend in the wind a bit so you don't get snapped off, if indeed survival is your goal. There weren't too many survivors at the Alamo. |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
I brought this subject up briefly a while ago, how somebody would have to take control and organize, be a leader. I was laughed at, called 'controlling'. But it isn't funny, in this instance of collapse where survival depends on organization and designation of duty, somebody has to understand what needs to be done and make it happen. For ie, if I had friends and neighbors come to me because I have land water and seeds, i would say 'fine but this is how it works' and assign everybody a part. Nobody sits on their ass including me, nobody challenges me, nobody stays without doing their share and then some. I wouldn't say 'go away' because it wouldn't work that way, they'll come back as predators not contributors. I would say 'I decide'
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but not to just one location, right now i have 3 BOL's ( with caches ) with a makeshift standby defense/survival thru mobility |
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That was what I meant by blending in.....and being invisible. You will seem to be one of them when and if needed... |
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No one person or group can stand alone. In a bad time the only way to survive long term is to find others like minded or at least people that will agree to work for the common good of survival. The ones that are rejected could find others like minded and cause problems. In a truly shtf times having allies is the only way to have an even remote chance to make it long term.... No one will be able to make it alone...No one.... |
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All adults will be summoned and told the following: Lest there be no mistake: This not a democracy,republic,community or any other fancy term you have dancing around in your heads. THIS IS A DICTATORSHIP AND I AM THE DICTATOR ..........MY WORD IS THE LAW. ANYBODY HERE (Young or old) WHO HAS A PROBLEM WITH ME TELLING THEM WHAT TO DO LET THEM SPEAK RIGHT NOW AS YOU WILL BE PROVIDED A SMALL CARE PACKAGE AND SHOWN THE DOOR. A NEW AGE HAS DAWNED IN AMERICA. THE TIME OF THE WARLORD IS HERE. Those who elected to remain will be assigned their tasks and monitored closely under my strong hand. |
Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
LOL TA, that would work, would be the only way it could, as GoldDust pointed out. But (just a 'for if' here) my husband would be the dictator, we understand people have different strengths and weaknesses. His strength is he doesn't give a sh!t what anybody thinks, couldn't care less about making a grown man cry (and has) where I'm a softie but I know what needs to be done. It occurs to me...tshtf is a tremendous opportunity for those with their wits about them.
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Re: Some Ground Truth--The "Us" and the "Them" in a Societal Collapse
Does anybody here follow the Global Guerillas blog?
he always has interesting information and insight. i ask because he is big on establishing the "Resilient Community" idea... http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/...silient-c.html |
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Does anybody here see a pattern?
Being a Swede among a town of 5000scandinavians in minnesota or being a nobody in a multikulti town in Florida, where even your white neighbors turn on you for being a 'racist'? I think we all lnow the answer |
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fantasize about controlling people and imagining you have power over others. You should consider a career in law enforcement. You'll find many like-minded people. |
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We are all small and unimportant, ultimately. and that is a moot point, anyways, because one doesn't need a reason to fantasize about controlling people. everybody wants to rule the world. Its my own design Its my own remorse Help me to decide Help me make the most Of freedom and of pleasure Nothing ever lasts forever ... |
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I have No desire to Lord over anyone. I would much rather prefer to go about my life and learn to play several instruments and study nature in depth. I just happen to have a very simple, yet keen, understanding of world we occupy: IF YOU COME TO ME SEEKING HELP, 9 TIMES OUT OF TEN I WILL BUT YOU WILL DO AS YOU ARE TOLD BECAUSE IT IS YOU WHO NEEDS ME NOT VICE VERSA. Life in its most raw form is quite harsh But nature rewards those who can rise to the occasion. The fact that we are hear today is proof positive we all come from a strong Bloodline of Winners. THE WEAK DONT BREED.....AT LEAST NOT FOR LONG. When I need help or specific knowledge I have no problem sitting at 'The Feet of the Masters" being admonished as needed or carrying the costs of mentorship. As my Momma would say: EVERYTHING IN THIS LIFE COMES AT A PRICE AND BEFORE YOU ATTAIN IT YOU WILL PAY FOR IT IN FULL AND UP FRONT FIRST. Sometimes that price is being told what to do by someone who is 15 years your junior,senior, opposite sex, race or getting bamboozeled outta money cause you didnt know better etc. Dose that hurt? Yes. So does being hungry,cold and eventually DEAD. Now........You choose. T |
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